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Bayesian detection of abnormal hematological values to introduce a no-start rule for heterogeneous populations of athletes

Laboratoire Suisse d’Analyse du Dopage, Institut Universitaire de Médecine Légale, Chemin des Croisettes 22, 1066 Epalinges, VD, Switzerland

Correspondence: Neil Robinson, Laboratoire Suisse d’Analyse du Dopage, Institut Universitaire de Médecine Légale, Chemin des Croisettes 22, 1066 Epalinges, VD, Switzerland. Phone: international +41.21.3147330. Fax: international +41.21.3147095. E-mail: neil.robinson{at}chuv.ch

Sports authorities exclude athletes with abnormal levels of blood parameters. Here, the consideration of longitudinal blood profiles together with heterogeneous factors such as ethnicity and age produces a model with enhanced sensitivity to detect blood doping. Sports disciplines with heterogeneous populations now have a general method to introduce the no-start rule.

Key words: blood doping, indirect marker, abnormal blood profile, Bayesian statistics.